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OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for September 2009 point strongly to growth in Italy, France, United Kingdom and China, while tentative signals of expansion have emerged in Canada and Germany. A recovery is clearly visible in the United States, Japan and all other OECD economies and major non-OECD economies. Although expansion signals can be observed in several countries, these signals should be interpreted with caution, as the expected improvement in economic activity, relative to long term potential levels, can be partly attributed to a decrease in the estimated long term potential level and not solely an improvement in economic activity itself.

comScore, Inc., a leader in measuring the digital world, released its Q3 2009 retail e-commerce sales estimates, which showed that U.S. online retail spending totaled $29.6 billion, down 2 percent versus year ago. Q3 2009 represents the first time on record that consecutive quarters have seen negative e-commerce spending growth compared with the same quarter the year prior.

The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The largest job losses over the month were in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade.

When it comes to their retirement, America’s 50-somethings seem to be in a state of denial. Although the recent economic downturn has forced pre-retirees ages 50 to 59 to consider working years longer than they had hoped, their current rate of savings is unlikely to fund the retirement lifestyles they expect, according to fifth annual Retirement Fitness Survey from Wells Fargo & Company.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 9.5 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. This was the largest gain in productivity since the third quarter of 2003, when it rose 9.7 percent. Labor productivity,
or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and
unpaid family workers. Output increased 4.0 percent and hours worked decreased 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2009.

While some economic experts believe that the recession is over, today’s job market remains dismal and small businesses – the largest employer group – fear the economy will not sustain the need for more employees, according to a recent poll by George S. May International.

Employment in the EU27 and the euro area began to fall in the second quarter of 2008 as a result of the economic crisis. Between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009, employment dropped by 1.9% to 222.7 million persons in the EU27 and by 1.8% to 145.5 million in the euro area (EA16). However, the fall in employment was smaller than the contraction of economic activity (-4.9% GDP growth in the EU27 and -4.8% in the euro area in the same period). One of the reasons for this is the fact that employers can reduce the volume of hours worked and increase the use of part-time employment. This has been the case in the EU27 and in the euro area between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009. The analysis of the impact of the crisis on employment also shows that employees have been affected differently depending on their level of education.

In September 2009, compared with August 2009, the volume of retail trade fell by 0.7% in the euro area (EA16) and by 0.4% in the EU27. In August retail trade dropped by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

Reports from the first days of November show that the housing market is still on shaky ground. According to the statistics from ForeclosureDataonline.com, real estate prices on the whole are down already for the first three days of November as compared with October's average. The foreclosure market appears strong however. It grew over this same period and shows the kind of steady growth that is apt to continue.

A new Harris Poll finds that the great majority of the public is satisfied with their lives, and that most people believe that their personal situation will improve over the next five years. The numbers who feel this way are lower today than they were in the last few years, but most Americans are still upbeat and optimistic in spite of the economic tough times and the increase in unemployment. Furthermore, a majority of Echo Boomers (aged 18-30), and pluralities of Gen X (aged 31-42) and Baby Boomers feel their present situation today is better than it was five years ago. Only among Matures (aged 62+) is there a plurality who feels that their situation has become worse.